The Upper Hand Rookie Kit is Coming! ⏳

Free agency has slowed down, the draft is still over a month away – these are the mini dog days of the fantasy offseason before the real dog days this June. Until then, enjoy some March Madness action.

What’s in store:

• Could Sam Darnold actually be the plan in Minnesota to start 2024? Kevin O’Connell had a glowing report on the recently acquired QB…

• The Gus Bus keeps chugging right along… for now. He’s got a vote of confidence from the Chargers brass going into 2024.

• Could Daniel Jones not be ready for Week 1? 😬 We’re a while out from kickoff, but Daboll isn’t making any commitments on his availability come the first week of games.

• Same stars, new coaching in Tampa Bay. 🏴‍☠️ Faraz preview’s the Buccaneers offense with Liam Coen at OC in 2024.

• Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell says that recently acquired QB Sam Darnold’s ‘best days are ahead of him’

  • The Vikings added Darnold on the cheap during the first wave of free agency, signing him to a one-year deal as their insurance policy should they decide that whichever quarterback they select should sit for a while behind the veteran – and as their starter if they would opt to forgo taking a signal caller altogether. Darnold was last seen playing admirable, if not solid football in Kyle Shanahan’s QB-friendly system and could have sneaky fantasy upside in a Vikings offense that’s chock-full of elite weapons. There’s a very realistic chance that Darnold is relegated to the No. 2 spot on the depth chart if Minnesota would decide to get the post-Kirk Cousins era started as early as possible, but as we’ve seen with rookie quarterbacks in the past, they are often spelled by veterans for a game or two here if they run into turbulence. We’ll have a much better idea about where Darnold stands in the coming months, but he could have plus value as a plug-and-play streamer in any games he plays as part of a Vikings offense that resembles his former team in its talent and coaching ability.

• Chargers GM Joe Hortiz went on record this week calling FA addition Gus Edwards the ‘bell cow’ in LA’s backfield

  • Jim Harbaugh presumably will have a word about that by the time the regular season rolls around. As Faraz so nicely outlined in one of our posts over on Instagram, Harbaugh is likely to bring the run-heavy offense we’ve seen from him and his staff in San Francisco and Michigan to LA in his return to the NFL. The good news for Gus Edwards? His former OC in Baltimore Greg Roman is the new OC in Los Angeles, which should buy him some leeway in the Chargers backfield as a goal-line back at the very least. The role Edwards ultimately fills could end up looking a lot like the one he played for the Ravens these past few years, cashing in on short-range touchdowns but giving way to change of pace and pass catching backs frequently. It’s not controversial to say that the Chargers offense in 2024 projects to have a lower scoring ceiling today than the Ravens’ offense did in 2023, so we could easily see Edwards’ 13 rushing touchdowns from last year regress back to the mean on a less efficient offense –especially if the Chargers look to add a ball carrier in this year’s draft.

• Giants HC Brian Daboll says that there’s currently no guarantee that QB Daniel Jones will be ready to go for Week 1

  • Daboll did his best to clear the air surrounding New York’s current QB situation, saying that Daniel Jones would be the starter when he returns from his ACL tear. The last time the former 6th-overall pick himself saw the field in 2023, he failed to muster 1000 passing yards through six starts and tossed just a pair of touchdowns and six interceptions. The Giants now find themselves back at 6th in the draft order in 2024 with most, if not all, of the top quarterback talent projected to be off the board by the time they get on the clock a month from now. Outside of an outlier 2022 season that saw Jones light up the box score with 700+ rush yards and seven touchdowns on the ground, Jones has hardly been usable in fantasy throughout his career and now faces the uphill battle of regaining his rushing ability off a major leg injury. It would be disingenuous to assume that Jones won’t be the same as before following an ACL tear, but with his level of play being questionable at best even before the injury, fantasy managers shouldn’t bank on Jones as anything more than a potential upside QB2 option in 2024.

The good news is that the offense under new OC Liam Coen isn’t a whole lot different from the one the Buccaneers ran in 2023 with Dave Canales at OC. Similar concepts with slightly different terminology… a balanced offense, but some key differences that bode well for Baker and Co.

Coen will bring a lot more play action. Baker had one saving grace in his career prior to last year, and that was his play action passing. Tampa ranked only 17th in PA frequency last year. In general, PA passes are more efficient than normal dropbacks.

It’s also better for WRs. ⬇️

Coen comes from the McVay coaching tree, so we should expect a lot more motion. The Bucs ranked 28th in the league in motion last year, and as Coen said himself: “I’ve never really stayed stationary.” The top offenses (Dolphins, Rams, 49ers, Lions, Ravens) were all at the top of the league in that category last year.

We know there’s chemistry between Baker and Mike Evans. But more bunch formations, and more Chris Godwin in the slot? Yes, please. Coen had this to say about Godwin coming into the job in Tampa: “You’ve got a guy like Chris that I think can really be dynamic inside… That’s where I envision him playing, is more on the inside, playing that F position that ultimately Cooper played. A lot of things do run through that. So I’m excited about him.”

Godwin has thrived in the slot throughout his career. For whatever reason, he ran out of the slot at only a 40% rate last year compared to 74% in 2022 and 75% in 2021. More targets are coming his way this year if Coen can get gim back to that.

Former OC Dave Canales helped both Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith revive their careers, but he’s not the only one capable of doing so. Coen has some history being able to overcome and help QBs thrive…

Will Levis had his best year under Coen in 2021 at Kentucky, but regressed in 2022 when Coen took the Rams OC job. Back in Kentucky in 2023, Coen led one of the most efficient and explosive offenses in the country despite terrible QB play. Coen also helped Kentucky improve their red zone offense from last in the SEC in 2022 to 4th best. He’ll try to do the same with the Bucs’ bottom-5 red zone offense from 2023.

He also wasn’t afraid to use a workhorse RB each of his last two years at Kentucky: Chris Rodriguez in 2021 posted a 225/1379/9 line, and Ray Davis in 2023 had 199/1129/14 on his mantle.

Translation: Rachaad White could be in line for another high-volume season despite his serious inefficiencies last year.

Dave Canales helped bring Baker back from the dead, and now it’s up to Coen to take this offense to the next level. Will the Bucs offense take a step forward or backward in 2024?

Estime had a rough go at the Combine after running a 4.71 40, but improved on that time with an unofficial 4.58. The real number is probably somewhere in between. The thing is, with pads on, there have been many occasions where no one can catch up to him in the open field. And for his size, this is not AJ Dillon we’re talking about.

is 6.4 yards/attempt in 2023 wasn’t as high as three other RBs in this class, but it’s even more impressive because of the fact that Estime is the only one of them who did it on more than 136 carries - he had 209. He was 2nd to Jaylen Wright in yards after contact/attempt, which is in the 95th-percentile among qualifying FCS RB seasons over the last 10 years. His 0.32 MTF/attempt fell into the 92nd-percentile.

He can catch, but he’s not one of the better receivers in this class. His 1.29 yards/route run in 2023 wasn’t too shabby, and is somewhat in line with his career 1.13 YPRR. He’s an average receiver who can catch checkdowns, and only had 26 catches throughout his career. He needs to do better in pass protection if he’s going to get extra responsibility on third downs.

He is a serious power back, is a big dude, and his 4.0 yards after contact/att tells the story - that ranks 24th among 607 eligible Power 5 RBs over the last 10 years. He’s elusive enough, as well, making guys miss at a 0.28 rate; this ranks in the 90th percentile over the last 10 years. He has big play ability, but he doesn’t do it as often as you’d think if you just watch his highlights. His burst isn’t as good as some of these other backs, when he has a head of steam, you do not want to try and bring this guy down. He probably will thrive in more of a gap scheme than a zone one. Has the making of a very good early down back who can dominate at the goal line.