Waddle and Collins get the bag! 💰

Honestly, whether or not Darren Waller plays in 2024 isn’t going to save Daniel Jones’ career as a starter in the NFL. Just saying.

What’s in store:

• Jaylen Waddle, Nico Collins sign big-money deals 🤑 Both AFC wide receivers are locked in for the next three years with their respective teams.

• Taysom Hill is doing Taysom Hill things so far in camp. That is, being a pest to fantasy managers with other Saints players on their rosters.

• How much is left in the tank for Zeke? It’s clear that Zeke is running on fumes at this point, but with not a lot of competition in Dallas, could be have some utility?

• The screaming buy in NFC South! 🏷️ Dynasty managers will want to get their hands on one of Faraz’s top trade priorities…

• Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle signs three-year extension with the team worth up to $84.75M with $76M guaranteed

  • The league’s fastest wide receiver duo is there to stay in Miami for at least the next two seasons as the Dolphins lock up the former 2021 first round pick. Since his record-setting rookie season that saw him amass the most receptions by a rookie in league history (since broken by Puka Nacua), Waddle finished as a Top-10 receiver in 2022 and held his own as the Dolphins’ No. 2 option running alongside Tyreek Hill in 2023. Waddle’s production was never going to be as consistent as it was in his rookie year with Tyreek Hill around, and that’s largely been how things have played out in two years sharing the field with him: Waddle has finished as a weekly WR1 eight times over the past two seasons to go along with 18 WR3 or worse finishes (outside the weekly top-24). For those of you counting at home, that means in his 31 starts over the past two seasons, he’s managed to find the middle ground as a WR2 (WR13-24 finish) just five times since Tyreek Hill joined the team. That hot and cold tendency hasn’t caused the Dolphins to hesitate in signing him long-term, though, as he’s made his presence felt as a chain mover for Miami after posting the 6th-highest first downs per route run in the NFL in 2023. The last domino remaining to fall before we can say for sure that Waddle’s future is locked in is QB Tua Tagovailoa’s contract. For the 2024 season, though, we can expect more of the same for Waddle relative to his production in 2023.

• Texans WR Nico Collins signs three-year, $72M extension with the team, solidifies future in Houston

  • If there was any question about who the Texans viewed as C.J. Stroud’s number one receiver going into 2024 (and trust us, there are plenty of you), Houston has given us the answer. Collins is locked into his role as the team’s top dog on the perimeter for the next three years, earning his big payday in the same offseason that the team chopped off the end of free agent axqusition Stefon Diggs’ contract. While nothing changes situationally heading into 2024 with Collins signing the extension, the future of the Texans WR corps. has become clearer moving forward. There’s a very reasonable chance that Diggs’ time with the Texans amounts to a one-year rental while Collins spearheads the Texans passing attack alongside Tank Dell, which should have Tank Dell’s managers cautiously optimistic about the short term value of the second-year Houston product. Collins posted the second-highest yards per route run (3.37) of any receiver in the NFL last season behind only Tyreek Hill (minimum 100 routes run), and with the Texans retaining OC Bobby Slowik and C.J. Stroud heading into Year 2 with his hair on fire, Collins profiles as a low-WR1 candidate even with the addition of Stefon Diggs to the receiving room.

• Saints QB/TE hybrid Taysom Hill reportedly being utilized out of the backfield at Saints OTAs

  • Come on guys, those touches are supposed to be going to Kendre Miller! All jokes aside, everyone’s least favorite touchdown thief appears to be primed to reprise the same role in the Saints offense in 2024, with Sports Illustrated writer John Hendrix reporting that Hill was not only seeing his usual handful of touches in the receiving game, but also earning touches out of the backfield, as well. If you can believe it, Hill has actually finished as the overall PPR TE9 and TE12 in each of the past two seasons, finding a majority of his relevance in the ground game to the tune of 976 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns combined since 2022. For comparison, veteran RB Alvin Kamara has scored just ten total touchdowns in that same time frame, and any expansion of Hill’s role in the offense – especially in the run game – could come at the cost of Kamara’s individual production. Kamara was able to sustain himself with 75 receptions last season (the 2nd-most in the league), but his rushing numbers lagged noticeably behind in 2023 compared to the rest of his career (just 694 yards and five TDs). In all likelihood, Taysom Hill should be set to take his usual five or six gadget plays per game and have a boom week ere or there, but the volatility of his production between solid performances makes drafting and actually starting him a bigger headache than he’s worth. You have to admire his ability to get up and go though at age 33… he’s a worthwhile best ball pick with upside to finish inside the top-10 every week.

Zeke is back with the Cowboys, but he might not have control over the backfield this year like he did in his previous stint in Dallas. Cowboys beat reporter Patrik Walker says that while Zeke is regarded as the lead back, he’s fulfilling that role as part of a committee that includes a healthy dose of Rico Dowdle.

Dallas passed the ball at the tenth-highest rate last year, and that was with Tony Pollard in the fold. Now that he’s gone, the Cowboys will most likely lean even heavier into the passing game – meaning guys like Zeke and Dowdle will have to be hyper efficient or rely on touchdowns to make themselves fantasy relevant. Lucky for them, they’re part of an offense that ranked first in total points scored last year and in 2021, and fourth in total points in 2022 - all under Mike McCarthy and with Dak Prescott at QB.

Zeke is the RB40 on Underdog’s best ball ADP, while Dowdle checks in three spots lower as the overall RB43, making them both very solid fliers later in drafts. Zeke has clearly lost a step since his heyday back from 2016-2020, but the last time he was with the Cowboys he was delivered to 12 touchdowns in 2022. He’ll have plenty of utility again as a goal line hammer and short yardage specialist and could also pick up some receiving work thanks to his pass blocking ability.

Given his price relative to the role that he could play, Zeke is a zero-risk, solid reward running back that could have utility as a spot starter at RB2 or flex. As for Dowdle, he could play a Tony Pollard-esque role along with Zeke, similar to the platoon the Cowboys utilized in 2022 when both backs were perfectly usable in lineups. However, it’s unlikely that either player is able to wrestle away a majority of snaps in the backfield.

I usually don’t like to buy RBs this time of year because a lot can happen between now and the beginning of the season - not so much injuries, but moreso RBs can be added to backfields, there can be surprise cuts and new additions to teams that create muddy backfields - but I don’t think this backfield qualifies for one of those situations. I don’t see a RB being added to the Saints backfield, so I’m looking to get Kendre Miller on any dynasty team I don’t currently have him on.

First of all, I was banging the table for Kendre Miller last year. That didn’t work out. I was wrong… he didn’t make an impact during his rookie year (I was right about Jamaal Williams though). Why didn’t it work out for Kendre?

It didn’t help that he sprained his knee in preseason, which is the same knee he injured his MCL and meniscus in. That injury prevented him from being able to participate in the NFL Combine. The Saints rushed him back after a couple of weeks, and then he pulled his hamstring right away right before the season began. He then had to deal with hamstring injuries and ankle injuries the entire season until he finally got some opportunity with Alvin Kamara missing time in Week 18… and he looked pretty good. He was PFF’s 4th highest graded RB that week, he had the 8th highest yards after contact/att, and the 2nd highest missed tackle rate. That’s the last we saw of him before the Saints season ended.

He was a very good prospect, he would’ve been up there with Jonathon Brooks for me if he came out this year, he has a three down skillset, he has the size, but will he have the opportunity? That brings me to Alvin Kamara.

The Saints picked Kendre Miller for a reason. Alvin Kamara was amazing for fantasy least year. But it was a MIRAGE. 32% of his fantasy points came from receptions alone (in other words, he was getting straight uo peppered). That was by far the highest percentage of fantasy points coming from receptions alone - this is not counting receiving yards. Don’t get me wrong - he’s still good in the receiving game, but is he going to be the guy on early downs this year, or will Miller start to get worked in?

Kamara is going to be 29 years old in July, and he was one of the least efficient runners in the NFL last year. Among RBs with 100 ore more carries last year, he was bottom-7 in missed tackles forced/att and yards after contact/att. In his limited opportunities last year, he was 11th and 20th in those categories among the 78 qualifying RBs last year.

Kendre Miller isn’t even 22 years old yet, and he was in the 92nd and 95th percentile in those categories among college RBs over the last 10 seasons. We could see a 1-2 punch in this backfield with Kamara maintaining his pass catching duties, and I want to buy before we hear any hype of out training camp, get any hype from preseason, and before he gets that opportunity to show that he’s a legitimately good RB. He’s still affordable, the cat isn’t out of the bag yet.