Week 15 WR Matchup Previews!

Instagram was down yesterday, but we weren’t! Tune into the latest episode of the Upper Hand Fantasy Podcast: QB & RB Matchups, and stay tuned later today for the full WRs and TEs show wherever you get your podcasts!

• 49ers RB Isaac Guerendo officially listed as questionable for tonight’s TNF game vs Rams

  • The running back hasn’t participated in practice at all on the short week and enters the contest with his status genuinely up in the air. So much for the ‘just precautionary’ explanation – fantasy managers who reaped the benefits of adding Guerendo ahead of Week 14 could be without his services in the first round of the big dance, which would without a doubt be backbreaking for certain teams. If Guerendo plays, he should be started as usual as a mid-low RB2; chances are if he does play, the 49ers will have him on some level of workload management while sprinkling in Patrick Taylor and Izzy Abanikanda to the backfield. If he doesn’t, Patrick Taylor can likely be started as a fantasy RB3 with upside, while Abanikanda would be the definition of a dice roll in the flex.

• Bills WR Keon Coleman (wrist), TE Dalton Kincaid (knee) both practice in full on Wednesday ahead of Week 15 clash with Lions

  • Coleman and Kincaid have both missed significant time over the past few weeks, but their absences have, to be frank, hardly been noticeable. That has a lot to do with the fact that Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level as of late, and the fact that newly acquired WR Amari Cooper has established a role for himself after struggling initially to find a foothold in Buffalo’s offense. The return of Coleman to the lineup shouldn’t hurt Cooper as much as it does players like Mack Hollins and co. further down the depth chart, and in a matchup with the highest implied total on the week, all of the Bills big name pass catchers are worth a start. Kincaid has struggled all season long to get things going in the receiving game, and with newfound competition from Cooper in the target distribution, Kincaid profiles as a low-ceiling TE2 play at this point.

• Jets RB Breece Hall reportedly ‘struggling a bit’ in recovery from knee injury, per HC Jeff Ulbrich

  • Needless to say, Hall’s status is very much in question ahead of the Jets’ Week 15 matchup against the lowly Jaguars. While there’s still time for him to turn things around later in the week and push to be active, with the season all but lost, it’s hard to imagine either of Hall or the organization wanting to put Hall out on the field on one leg. That opens the door once again for the dynamic tandem of Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis to potentially make their second consecutive starts, and this time in one of the most optimal matchups for running back production. The two backs split work essentially down the middle, with Allen maintaining a 5% margin in rush attempts. Davis has scored a touchdown in each of the past two games, and with the Jaguars being particularly vulnerable against receiving backs, he could be an intriguing start as a desperate flex play this week. If Breece hall would somehow be able to suit up for Sunday, he would be an RB2 play – especially since we’ve seen him limited by this injury before.

Bears WRs vs MIN

• All of these Bears WRs are earning targets – Moore is at a 28% target share, Keenan Allen is at a 27% target share, and Odunze is at 21% since Shane Waldron was fired as OC. They’re all averaging well over their season-long points per game over the past four games; Moore is up to 18.3 from 11.1, Allen is up to 15.3 from 8.9, and Odunze is up to 11.5 from 8.5. Translation: Moore is a safe WR2 start, Keenan Allen is a strong WR3 start, and Odunze profiles as an acceptable flex.

• The last time these two teams met, Moore and Allen finished as the WRs 4 and 8, respectively. Minnesota is allowing the most receptions, receiving yards, and fantasy points per game to wide receivers, so you can fire all three of them up this week with confidence in their respective roles.

Jakobi Meyers vs ATL

• For Meyers’ sake, let’s hope Aidan O’Connell plays on Monday. It seems like he has a legit shot, and if he plays, Meyers will be a strong start again against a Falcons defense that’s giving up the third-most receptions, sixth-most receiving yards, and the most touchdowns to receivers this season.

• Atlanta is also allowing more than 10 points per game more to wide receivers than any other team in the NFL over the past four games. Any receivers to touch the field against them have quite literally turned to gold, so plug Meyers in as your WR2 once again even after an underwhelming performance last week in a similarly strong matchup. Meyers was still at a 27% target share last week.

Bills WRs vs DET

• This WR room is going to be an absolute shitshow if Keon Coleman returns to the lineup, but if there’s a matchup where all of these pass catchers can come through, this would be it against Detroit. The Lions are allowing the 4th-most fantasy points per game to WRs over the last four weeks, as well as the second-most receptions and receiving yards over the course of the season.

• Amari Cooper upped his target share to a gnarly 38% on his 63% route participation, so he becomes a clear WR2 start now that he’s healthy. He’s also killed it against single-high coverage this season, earning targets at the 9th highest rate against that defense – and the Lions run it at the 9th-highest rate. Khalil Shakir should continue to be a worthwhile play as a fantasy WR3, though his matchup is a bit tougher with Detroit only allowing the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to slot receivers over the past four games.

• Coleman would be a flex play with some upside in a matchup as good as this one, but I’m not exactly chomping at the bit to get him into my lineup in his first game back for the fantasy playoffs.option this week for me.

Malik Nabers vs BAL

• Nabers is the lowest in my rankings he’s been all season, and it’s because not even elite target earning can save him from the abomination that the Giants offense is right now. Despite ranking second in the NFL in target share since Week 7, Nabers has averaged just 13 PPR points per game in that span – a four point per game difference between his actual and expected 17.1 PPR points per game.

• The Ravens are still allowing the second-most fantasy points per game on paper to wide receivers this season, but over the past four games, they’re only allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game. I don’t trust Tommy DeVito or Drew Lock under center for New York, and Nabers hasn’t been over 16 points in a game since returning from his concussion way back when.