- Upper Hand Fantasy Newsletter
- Posts
- Week 2 Matchups to Target + TNF Preview! 🔍
Week 2 Matchups to Target + TNF Preview! 🔍
Plus, can Nico Collins follow up a solid Week 1 performance? And is George Pickens in for a big boost with Diontae Johnson out?
Hunter Henry is the current fantasy football TE1 in PPR scoring. Do what you will with that information.
What’s in store:
Christian Watson not guaranteed to play in Week 2. Could it be another Romeo Doubs masterclass?
Previewing tonight’s heavyweight NFC tilt. Kenny Gainwell is out, but that doesn’t necessarily mean D’Andre Swift is the guy.
Matchups to Target and Avoid: Week 2. Torn between two players? See what Faraz and Zach have to say about a few matchups this week.
Calvin Austin = Diontae Johnson replacement? Check out this interesting statistic from Week 1’s action.
Kenneth Gainwell trending towards not playing in Eagles Thursday night game vs Vikings
After handling the vast majority of the snaps for Philadelphia in their Week 1 win against the Patriots, Gainwell was a surprise addition to the injury report earlier this week. That opens the door for RB D’Andre Swift, who saw very limited work in his Eagles debut but could see his volume increase with Gainwell’s absence. Eagles HC Nick Sirianni gave a great non-answer to reporters heading into the matchup, saying that Swift will “sometimes” have a role where he “carries the load for the game”. Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but with Rashaad Penny being a healthy scratch in Week 1 and Boston Scott seeing just a single touch (albeit at the goal line), Swift could see a fantasy relevant workload and a return to viability in Week 2.
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce returns to practice Wednesday, status for Week 2 trending in the right direction
It seemed like Kelce’s injury might not have held him out of Week 1 had the Chiefs played on Sunday instead of Thursday. The expectation should be that he suits up for the first time in 2023 on Sunday against the Jaguars, which would be a welcome return after a week where many of the top tight ends in fantasy football were either out with injury or no-shows in the box score. There’s no question about where Travis Kelce fits into lineups when he’s healthy, and we can expect Mahomes to lean on him heavily after a less-than inspiring performance from the Chiefs’ wide receivers against Detroit.
WR Christian Watson take part in rehab work Wednesday, not a full participant in practice yet
This is a step forward in Watson’s progression towards a return, but there are still a few hurdles to clear until we can officially declare him ready to go. He’s not participating in drills just yet, so it’ll be worth keeping an eye on practice reports out of Green Bay as we get closer to this weekend’s action. Regardless, it seems like the hamstring injury is still not completely in the rearview, and if he would play this week, Watson could be on a snap count a la Romeo Doubs in Week 1. If he doesn’t go against the Falcons, though, the expectation should be that he makes his return and 2023 season debut in Week 3.
This game wasn’t very competitive in Week 2 a year ago – will tonight’s game be any better?
I’m hopeful for a good game here. The Eagles defense is without James Bradberry and their safety Reed Blankenship, and Fletcher Cox is questionable. I think this bodes well for Jordan Addison - it’s possible we see Darius Slay shadow Justin Jefferson again, and that worked out well for them last year.
That’s advantage Addison - remember, he didn’t run a full route participation, and he was still playing behind KJ Osborn, but earned more targets per route run. Does that mean he sees a bump in just a few days? I’m not sure, but he can take advantage of the matchup running on 2/3 of the passing snaps. He did on Sunday, so he can do it again in this game. He’s an upside flex play at the moment.
Alexander Mattison had pretty good usage in Week 1, and he looked pretty good to be honest. He was a workhorse and he dominated touches, snaps, and opportunities. As this offense has its good games, Mattison is going to be a big part of it; if Fletcher Cox is out, he should be upgraded… but it seems like Cox will play.
On the Eagles side, you have to love the matchup. Baker Mayfield did his thing against this secondary, so that means AJ Brown and Devonta Smith will too. And you have to think that Dallas Goedert will show up on the box score in this game. Don’t overreact and bench Goedert –he’s still a top-5 or 6 TE this week. He should be in lineups.
Kenny Gainwell is out in this game - he’s not playing. Do I want to start Swift? Not really. But I will if I’m weak at RB or if I’m weak at flex… he definitely provides upside but has no floor. Boston Scott can get some run, Rashaad Penny will likely be active and get some run as well. But if I had to bet on who gets the most run, it’s the guy who had the second most snaps on Sunday, and that’s D’Andre Swift.
Faraz and Zach deliver players that have promising and not-so-promising matchups heading into Week 2!
Nico Collins is going up against the Colts, and we saw the Jaguars passing game do their thing against them last week. Granted, t wass Trevor Lawrence and some very talented WRs, but Indy has a couple of undrafted corners on the outside, so Zay Jones was also able to take advantage.
Again, in Week 1, Nico Collins had a 26% target share, 64% air yards share - highest among all WRs, - and a 15 yard aDOT, so he’s being targeted down the field. This is matching what we saw in the preseason with the first team, but the extra data point from Fantasy Life data - they were a pass heavy team - I know they went down, but even when it was close, they were a pass first team. The Colts gave up the 3rd most fantasy points to perimeter WRs last week, so I like Nico as a WR3 with upside this week.
I kinda like Jahan Dotson this week. I know I liked him last week too… but the WR2 for the Raiders did his thing against the Broncos in Week 1. Pat Surtain did a really good job against Davante Adams, though, and that allowed Jimmy Garroppolo to shift his focus to another pretty good WR in Jakobi Meyers, and we could see something similar this week if Surtain chooses to shadow Terry McLaurin.
Dotson did earn a 25% target share and 33% air yard share last week that led the team by far; he could have a solid performance this week and I’m treating him as a WR3.
Brandin Cooks could have a hard time this week against the Jets. The thing about the Jets and the Cowboys: they both have very strong defenses. Cooks played primarily on the perimeter for the Cowboys in their opener, logging 84% of his total snaps on the outside. Waiting for him there this week will be Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, and both of them will be problematic matchups in coverage.
Not much has to be said here - the Jets leave these two corners out on an island over 90% of the time, and it won’t matter what side Cooks plays on. It’s also worth noting that Cooks missed practice today, so any potential limitation for him if he plays in this game would only make him less attractive as a potential starter.
To put it bluntly, the Steelers were absolutely shellacked in Week 1 by the 49ers, and the scoring potential for Pittsburgh was severely limited. Adding injury to insult was Diontae Johnson leaving the game with a hamstring injury – but his departure from the lineup revealed a surprising development within the Steelers’ wide receiver corps…
It wasn’t like Drake London didn’t show up to the game – he did. Desmond Ridder had different plans Sunday afternoon, though.
Contrary to what you’ve probably heard and seen over the offseason about George Pickens being the next coming of Randy Moss, Pickens was actually 5th in the pecking order when it comes to targets per route run in Week 1. Diontae Johnson, not surprisingly, led the way to lead the team in targets per route run, but when he went down, Calvin Austin came in and dominated the target share.
The most notable part of this is that Austin logged just one less target than Pickens, and two more than Pat Freiermuth. Diontae Johnson is expected to miss a few weeks with his hamstring injury, and Calvin Austin will look to continue to earn targets in a Steelers offense that should rebound from their debacle against San Francisco.