Welcome to Super Bowl Sunday 🏆

It’s Super Bowl Sunday, everyone. Whether you like the matchup or not, we have no choice but to soak in meaningful NFL football one last time before the dreaded 6-month hiatus.

What’s in store:

• The Bears are unlikely to move the first overall pick in this year’s draft. Chicago got away with highway robbery last year, and appear to be satisfied to stand pat at the top of this year’s order.

• T.J. Hockenson could get a late start to 2024 😬. On his current trajectory, he could come at a significant discount in fantasy drafts next year.

• It’s Super Bowl Sunday, and Underdog has you covered. Here’s everything you need to know for the big game.

• Keep an eye out for Rashee Rice tonight 👀. The Chief’s WR will play in the final game of his rookie season tonight under the brightest lights.

• Bears remain unlikely to move the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft via trade, reportedly would want ‘historic compensation’

  • It’s all just words right now with the Bears not slated to be on the clock for another two months, but this report would certainly indicate that Chicago is content to stand pat at the top of the draft and potentially choose their signal caller of the future. Rumors have swirled recently, as well, regarding their asking price for Justin Fields in a trade, which appears to be in the ball park of a second round pick. The general consensus is that the Bears are eyeing USC QB Caleb Williams with the first overall pick, which would almost certainly seal Justin Fields’ fate as a trade piece in the coming months. It remains to be seen when or how Fields is moved – if the Bears are locked in on Williams or another passer with the first selection, Fields could reasonably be moved before the draft starts on April 25th. The Bears could also hold onto Fields through draft day and beyond even if they take a quarterback, which would set them up with an opportunity to work the phones on draft day and take advantage of the commotion of negotiating in real time. The bottom line here is this: Justin Fields appears primed to have a new home in 2024.

• Chiefs WR Rashee Rice and RB Isiah Pacheco both removed from injury report ahead of today’s Super Bowl

  • Neither player was genuinely in danger of missing the big game today against the 49ers, but the Chiefs have graciously removed them from the injury report with plenty of time to spare for fantasy managers who were hoping to have Rice and Pacheco on their DFS teams tonight. Rice has come on in the latter half of the season, culminating in an eight catch, 130-yard, one touchdown performance in the wild card round in the frozen tundra that was GEHA field against the Dolphins. In two playoff games since, Rice has caught twelve passes for just 93 scoreless yards. He’ll look to get back on track in the Super Bowl to close out the season against a 49ers defense that hasn’t been bulletproof this year. Meanwhile, Isiah Pacheco has scored a touchdown in all three playoff games for the Chiefs this season and rushed for at least 68 yards in each contest, as well. He’s been relatively matchup proof and fantasy managers shouldn’t be concerned about having him in their lineups after he came through against the Ravens stout run defense in the AFC Championship.

• Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson may not be ready to go in the 2024 regular season until October, per ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler

  • Hockenson tore his ACL and MCL this past December and deferred surgery on his knee for a month to allow his MCL to heal. On his current trajectory – barring any setbacks or ahead of schedule recovery – the Vikings tight end could potentially miss the first month of the 2024 regular season and be a candidate for the PUP list come August/September. Hockenson is still plenty young and this shouldn’t impact his game in the long run, but deflated production is certainly a possibility in the 2024 season. He’ll likely see a discounted redraft ADP with the threat of missed games looming large over his value, and the presence of strong target competition in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison will only muddy his fantasy prospects even more. Plus, Kirk Cousins isn’t a lock to return to Minnesota in 2024 either. There are plenty of cards yet to fall that will heavily influence the way we view Hockenson for next season, but fantasy managers can expect to see his ADP fall far from his fourth-round price tag in 2023.

Before we dive into Faraz’s favorite Underdog Pick’Ems for the Super Bowl today, don’t forget to take advantage of your FREE Patrick Mahomes pick for new users! All Mahomes needs is one yard to instantly win one pick of your entry, putting you one step closer to winning big during the big game. Watching the Super Bowl is more fun when you’re playing Underdog Fantasy –CLICK HERE to get in on the action!

Deebo Samuel HIGHER than 58.5 receiving yards

Travis Kelce HIGHER than 0.5 Rushing + Receiving TDs

Christian McCaffrey HIGHER than 92.5 rushing yards

Rashee Rice HIGHER than 6.5 receptions

Well guys, it’s about to happen: the Super Bowl quite literally nobody wanted. It’s a rematch of Super Bowl LIV, and all of the familiar faces from last time are running it back – Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Deebo Samuel, and the 49ers game managing quarterback!

Alright, maybe that comparison of Brock Purdy to Jimmy Garoppolo was uncalled for - but the 49ers have scored 24 and 34 points in their two playoff games, and Purdy is sitting pretty at a very pedestrian 2:1 TD:INT ratio. Not exactly exploding off the page, but he played the brand of football San Francisco needed him to these past two games and got the ball to his playmakers when it mattered. Can’t fault him for that – but if this Super Bowl goes anything like the last matchup between these two teams, you can bet that they won’t be whispers anymore when it comes to the media looking at Purdy as just the next Shanahan system QB.

On the flip side of the quarterback matchup stands just the most accomplished NFL quarterback through his first seven seasons in NFL history in Patrick Mahomes. The questions have lingered all season about the Chiefs’ offense and how they haven’t been shredding the stat sheet, but what there hasn’t been a question about is their ability to execute when it matters most. Travis Kelce, who was a walking shell of himself over the course of the second half of the season, has found his second wind and has been playing like a man possessed through three playoff games (23 catches, 262 yards, 3 TDs). Patrick Mahomes hasn’t turned the ball over yet this postseason, and – wait, this can’t be right – Marquez Valdes Scantling caught a pass to ice the game last week? Yes, it’s true: the Mahomes effect is strong enough to bolster everyone in the Chiefs offense, and the Chiefs QB is poised to lead his team to their third Super Bowl since that fateful furst against the 49ers in 2020.

The 49ers have faced some squishy defenses this postseason, and to their credit, they’ve taken care of business… but Kansas City is a different animal than anything the 49ers have faced as of late. The last elite AFC defense San Francisco took on was against the Ravens in Week 17, where they were subject to an absolute drubbing in their own house. The Chiefs have the pieces to match up to the 49ers elite offensive attack; Trent McDuffie and L’Jarius Sneed can help to limit Aiyuk and Deebo in the receiving game, and Chris Jones is a force against the run in the middle and a threat as a pass rusher.

The 49ers have won some big games, but there’s nobody better than Patrick Mahomes in the moments that matter… and it’s almost impossible to bet against him. The game should be competitive, but I anticipate the Chiefs being in control for most of the night and rolling to Mahomes’ third ring in six years as the starter – much to the chagrin of many an NFL fan.

The prediction: Chiefs 28, 49ers 20

One of the most important factors when it comes to evaluating receivers for fantasy purposes is route participation, and there’s perhaps no better example in 2023 of the difference that increased opportunity cane make on a player’s season than Rashee Rice. Early in the season, Rice was on the field for less than half of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps and produced as such. But with the struggles of the likes of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, and Kadarius Toney to establish themselves as the clear No. 1 option in the passing game for Mahomes, Rice earned his shot and ran with it in the second half of the year.

Through the first eleven weeks of the season (pre-Thanksgiving), Rice was running a route on a meagre 45% of snaps – nowhere near a high enough rate to contribute on a consistent basis to fantasy teams or the Chiefs in general. His 10.2 PPR fantasy points per game from Weeks 1-11 ranked 50th among all wide receivers, and he finished just once in the weekly top-15 at the position in that span.

That changed, though, in Week 12: Rice’s route participation jumped to 68% that week and never came back down, leveling out for the rest of the season at 79% and allowing Rice to become a force to be reckoned with in fantasy lineups. Through the final six games of the season (Weeks 12-17), Rice’s 18.5 PPR points per game ranked 8th among all WRs in that span and featured three top-15 finishes at the position in six games.