The WR mega deals keep on coming! 💸

It’s poetic the way that as soon as we posted the meme about the 2020 WR class not signing contracts, Justin Jefferson signs a mega deal and Ceedee Lamb is going to follow right behind. ICYMI:

upperhandfantasy

View more on Instagram

What’s in store:

• The Vikings lock up Justin Jefferson long-term 🔒. Jettas signed a record-breaking $35M/year deal Monday morning.

• Darren Waller expected to dodge the 2024 regular season. It’s not official yet, but it sure seemed like it when that music video was released.

• Already time to sell this second-year WR? ⏳ He was one of the most productive rookies in the NFL last year.

• Is Breece Hall a lock for the overall RB1 in 2024? Faraz explores the Jets RB’s path to claiming the top spot for the first time in his career.

• Vikings, WR Justin Jefferson reach agreement on four-year, $140M mega extension through the 2028 season

  • After a first half of the offseason that featured speculation about the Vikings utilizing Justin Jefferson in a potential trade to acquire their QB of the future, the former 2020 first-round pick locks into a Minnesota offense that features two question marks at the QB position. As things stand today, the QB battle is far from resolved in Kevin O’Connell’s system. Darnold brings experience as a starter in multiple systems with multiple teams, most recently with the 49ers in the top-notch Shanahan scheme. J.J. McCarthy, on the other hand was drafted 10th overall by the Vikings and has experience working in an offense loaded with talent and good coaching. He’ll certainly have more of that in the NFL in the Vikings offense, but there’s a chance that McCarthy doesn’t draw the start immediately if Darnold plays good ball through OTAs and training camp. Regardless of who’s taking snaps under center, Jefferson figures to be his usual productive self even with the departure of Kirk Cousins. Jefferson was able to average 22.1 PPR points per game in four full contests with backup QB Nick Mullens under center from Weeks 15-18, so moving from him to either of Darnold/McCarthy shouldn’t be too much of an issue in an offense that passed the ball at the third-highest rate in the NFL last year.

• General consensus within Giants organization, around the league that TE Darren Waller will retire ahead of the 2024 season

  • While it’s still not official, fantasy managers can put the idea of the soon-to-be 32 year old Waller returning to what figures to be an abysmal Giants offense to rest. After releasing one of the music videos of all time and divorcing Kelsey Plum, it’s hard to blame Waller if he doesn’t want to stick his neck out for a third time by running it back with Daniel Jones in 2024. In his lone season with the Giants, Waller amassed 552 yards on 52 receptions and scored just one touchdown in 12 starts, with that lone score being thrown by backup QB Tyrod Taylor. Since putting himself on the map with two top-3 finishes with the Raiders in 2019 and 2020, Waller has struggled to stay healthy. There was optimism following his trade to New York that he could return to form on an upstart Giants team that won a playoff game in 2022, but injuries as usual and a general floundering by the entire Giants organization in 2023 threw a wrench into his comeback plans. Even if Waller were to surprise the NFL world and return for the 2024 season with the Giants, he’d face even stiffer target competition with rookie phenom Malik Nabers lining up out wide. In other words, things weren’t going to get any easier moving forward for Waller than they were in 2023, but it likely won’t matter at this point with the nine-year veteran being expected to hang up the cleats.

• Falcons RB Bijan Robinson says he expects the offense in Atlanta to be ‘run first’, compares his usage to Christian McCaffrey

  • Today in fantastic news for fantasy managers: any role for Bijan in 2024 that’s close to what Christian McCaffrey has in San Francisco will make him fantasy football gold this year. While Robinson did concede that the offense would likely retain its run-first approach this year, it’s likely that there’s at least a slight shift away from the ground game with Kirk Cousins and not Desmond Ridder under center. Remember, the Falcons threw the ball at the third-lowest rate in 2023. Even a league-average passing rate in 2024 would not only preserve a very strong workload on the ground for Robinson, but also potentially open up opportunities in the passing game for the second-year back. The wild card that will determine just how much success Robinson has this season is how the Falcons deploy RB Tyler Allgeier. Nothing against Allgeier, who topped 1.000 yards in his rookie year back in 2022 – but in order for Bijan to maximize his potential in fantasy land, Allgeier will have to see significantly fewer carries than the 186 he earned in 2023. That could be in the cards, as new HC Raheem Morris has alluded multiple times this offseason to the idea of Robinson being a guy that needs to get the ball more than he did in 2023. Assuming the Falcons offense takes a much-needed step forward this year, Robinson could very well be in the mix for an overall RB1 finish in his second year in the league.

900 receiving yards and 10 TDs. That’s a very very good rookie season - production wise. In eight games with Kirk Cousins, Addison averaged 15.8 fantasy points/game. Justin Jefferson missed three of those games, and as a result, he had more opportunity. In eight games without Kirk Cousins, that points per game number dropped to only 10.5 PPR fantasy points/game. That would have ranked outside the Top-40, and Justin Jefferson basically missed 5 of those games. You would think Addison’s increased opportunity as the WR1 without Jefferson in the lineup would lead to more production… but no, only 8.6 fantasy points/game. That was with a 82% catchable target rate, so the quality of the targets weren’t terrible during that span.

I’m expecting that TD number for Addison to go way down this year without Kirk Cousins, who supplied him with 7 of his 10 TDs. Among the 34 WRs last year with 100+ targets, Addison’s 1.63 yards per route run was 2nd to last - that number isn’t great even for a rookie WR, let alone a pass catcher seeing target totals in the triple digits, and he was also 2nd to last in first downs/route run. The underlying metrics don’t suggest a great season upcoming despite the production on the stat sheet. I think he benefitted greatly from a team who passed a ton with a good QB and with defenses having to pay attention to Justin Jefferson. And keep in mind that TDs aren’t a sticky stat from year to year… he was 4th in TDs scored, but he was 15th in end zone targets - and 8 of his 11 total end zone targets for the year came in the first 8 weeks with Kirk Cousins.

I’m not saying Addison isn’t a good player, but I think you can get more for him than he’s worth, especially coming off a big statistical rookie season. And now he’ll have to battle Justin Jefferson for target share, and then eventually T.J. Hockenson when he’s back - and in a very questionable QB room with Sam Darnold and a rookie QB in JJ McCarthy.

Can you go get Tee Higgins using Addison? Can you get Tank Dell or Zay Flowers? Maybe add a little bit and get DK Metcalf, or one of these young stud TEs like Trey McBride? You can even get Rashee Rice right now and get something on top of that - I’d rather have Rice in dynasty over Addison pretty easily, even if he gets a 6 game suspension this year. See what your league is willing to give up for someone they might think will take a considerable second year jump this season.

If I had to choose a RB who has the best shot at becoming the overall fantasy RB1 in 2024, but has never finished as the fantasy RB1 before, I’m going with Breece Hall. I was a little worried going into last season given the fact that he was coming off the ACL injury, but man… it almost looked like he didn’t miss a beat. Like he wasn’t even coming off the injury.

He averaged almost 4.5 yards/carry behind an atrocious offensive line. Among the 23 RBs with 200 or more carries last year, Breece Hall was 2nd in yards after contact/attempt, 4th in missed tackles forced/attempt, 6th in rushing yards over expectation among RBs with over 90 carries. After an ACL tear? Seriously? Imagine how much more efficient he’s going to be behind a much improved offensive line, a year removed from the ACL injury, and the elephant in the room - with a FUNCTIONAL OFFENSE.

He did all that without Aaron Rodgers - the Jets offensive situation was brutal last year. Teams didn’t have to account for the pass game, and Breece still put up those numbers? He was still overall RB8 in fantasy points/game?

Now, defenses will have to account for the pass game… and speaking of the pass game, Aaron Rodgers loves to throw to his running backs - remember, Aaron Jones averaged more than 50 catches per season while he was the Packers primary RB with Rodgers, and Breece Hall is going to run way more routes than Jones did. And guess who was #1 in yards/route run among qualifying RBs last year - Breece Hall. Breece can easily be 2nd in targets behind Garrett Wilson.

A functional offense, let alone a good offense, can thrust a talented RB like Breece Hall from the RB8 in fantasy points/game all the way to the RB1 this year. I can totally see it happening.